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Apple supercycle predicted thanks to more first-time buyers

Another Apple supercycle has been predicted, thanks to a growing number of products being bought by those new to the company’s products.

A new market intelligence study says that the iPhone 14, Macs, and Apple Watch all saw very large numbers of those buying for the first time …

What is a supercycle?

Many products experience cycles in demand – higher at some points, lower at others. A supercycle is when demand continues rising, even when the normal cycles would have it falling.

The last time Apple experienced a supercycle was following the launch of the iPhone 6, when pent-up demand for larger-screen iPhones was unleashed.

Another Apple supercycle predicted

A new Counterpoint Research report suggests that another Apple supercycle may be building, as a growing number of people are buying the company’s products for the first time.

The company acknowledges that Apple isn’t immune to the macroeconomic factors affecting the whole tech industry. These include rampant inflation, a very strong dollar pushing up prices outside the US, and continued supply chain challenges.

But it says that the underlying trends, and prospects for longer-term growth, look excellent.

iPhone 14

For the iPhone 14, the company draws attention to the growth in Android switchers, record growth in emerging markets, and increasing demand for Pro models and higher storage tiers.

Apple’s revenue from iPhones grew 9.7% YoY despite foreign exchange headwinds on top of an already strong year-ago quarter. Apple registered a record-high installed base number for active devices driven by a record number of upgraders as well as ‘double-digit’ growth of switchers to iPhones, indicating continued migration from Android to iOS.

Another notable milestone was the record growth in emerging markets, namely India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Mexico, despite currency headwinds in the respective geographies, indicating strong headroom for growth in these regions.

The higher mix of Pro models in the iPhone 14 line-up and higher memory variants is further driving up iPhone ASPs according to initial channel checks.


The stunning performance and battery life of Apple Silicon Macs have also created a huge number of switchers from Windows machines.

During the final quarter of Apple’s fiscal year, Counterpoint says that more than half of Mac purchases came from first-time buyers.

This is crucial for Apple as it continues to attract the creator community and expand its footprint to a wider audience.

Apple Watch

Counterpoint noted that Apple Watch sales grew despite the wider economic headwinds, and says that a full two-thirds of purchases were by those who have never before bought one. Note that this isn’t saying they were new to the Apple ecosystem, but still suggests a bright future for Apple’s wearables.

Strong growth in the enterprise sector

Counterpoint says that high resale prices make Macs more affordable than they might appear for the enterprise sector, and that the ability to choose Macs makes companies more attractive to employees.

Apple witnessed strong growth in the B2B segment, which targets large enterprises. Apple says Ford is using iPad and iPhone’s advanced camera system for quality inspection of the new F-150 electric trucks. Apple products are also helping companies such as Cisco attract new talent as well as retain employees.

The high residual value of Apple devices remains a key selling point for the company to attract new customers. Apple’s trade-in programs further enable the brand to reduce the refresh cycle.

Companies switching to Macs have also long reported far lower support costs and higher productivity. One study found that the savings amount to over $800 per Mac, compared to Windows machines.

You can read the full report here.

Photo: Nicholas Cappello/Unsplash

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